Complete Week 4 NFL Predictions

Happy Thursday morning, everybody.

It is the NFL football season.

Week number four is about to commence tonight and we are here with Ed Cleese making our predictions for Week 4 of the NFL season.

Ed, welcome back to the Pig Pen.

Hello, Darren.

How are you?

Ed?

I am doing super.

And who could be doing bad when you're in the middle of the football season and things are getting really interesting in the NFL and it's not quite what everybody thought it was going to be and that's what makes it so cool.

Well, that's.

Yeah, sorry.

That's definitely the story of the NFL.

Just when you think you have it figured out, you absolutely do not.

And people that are following our picks probably don't think we have it very well figured out either.

You know, we're doing it two ways this year.

We're doing it straight up and against the spread, our straight up picks are okay so far.

I'm 26 and 22, you're 27 and 21.

So just slight edge for you there against the spread.

I'm one game above.500 at 24, 23 and 1.

You are 20, 27 and 1.

But Darren, what's more important on that is if we were going to track the money.

So let's just say that somebody was out there, was betting $100 on every single one of our picks and you got to kind of factor in that 10% vig on a loss like, like you would normally.

So if anybody was.

Has been following me, even though I'm one game above.500, you still would have already lost $130 playing my plays.

But Darren, you would have lost $970 if they're playing yours.

Oh, boy.

Yeah, don't bet on what I said the first three weeks.

That's for sure.

Too many favorites I think, coming out of your mouth so far, Darren.

I think so.

I got to get a little bit more creative here, I think.

Okay.

All right.

Well, that's going to set my theme here because we had a prediction show in August where we thought teams were going to finish and we had that sort of that draft.

And I haven't really stayed true to what I believe believed back then and maybe I should have because in most cases it would be pretty true so far.

There's a few instances, Chargers and Texans, but have really upset that apple card a little bit.

But I think if I would have stayed truer, I'd done better picks.

So I'm going to lean more back to what I thought back in August.

Back to your gut all right, well, I'm ready to roll when you are.

All right, let's.

Let's talk about the Thursday game.

Okay.

Thursday we have the Steelers who are two and a half point favorites at the two and one Cleveland Browns.

I am very scared to do this, Darren, but I think the Browns time might be now.

I'm not, I wouldn't say I'm a believer, but I think this is a good spot for them.

The Steelers explosion on offense last week does give me pause, as does the history between these two teams.

But I'm going to give a somewhat shaky vote for the Browns to win this game outright and of course cover well.

It's kind of unbelievable, but that's on Thursday nights.

The Steelers are like oh and nine against divisional opponents.

So that.

That goes in your favor of picking that.

But I'm going to lean a little bit on the coaching side because Mike McCarthy on short weeks and on Thursday night games has a resounding winning record.

I believe he's like 16 and 8 on Thursday night games and no short weeks.

So I think he knows how to prepare a team for these Thursday night games.

So I'm going to take the Steelers to win the game, but Cleveland is going to take it with the points.

It'll be like a 22 to 21 type of game, I think.

Got it going from your team to my team and going across the pond over to London.

We have the Colts who are three and a half point favorites, I would say at the commanders, but really it's versus the commanders this game.

I just do not like it from a, from a wagering standpoint at all.

I think the London games are tough to gauge in general.

Washington has a lot of guys that are injured and some may play, some may not, including Jaden Daniels.

We're a little unsure here.

I gave a shaky vote for Cleveland to pull the upset on Thursday.

I'm going to give a shaky vote for the commanders to do the same in London.

Yeah, this is another game.

Just like we talked about the Thursday night game.

These two teams just are coming off wins.

The their fan bases are riding high.

You know, everything's looking rosy right now, but yeah, you're right.

Going over to Europe sort of changes things and.

But I'm going to lean the other way.

I kind of like your team's chances here.

I think they're very opportunistic.

They're well coached and I think they are going to win the game despite the points.

So give me the commanders all the way.

Okay.

In Buffalo we have the Bills who are hosting the Patriots.

Buffalo's a seven point favorite.

Boy, there's just almost nothing to like what you see from New England right now.

It looks bad.

Every year there's one or two teams that have like the season from hell and it kind of feels like New England is on that path right now.

I simply cannot pick them to win this game.

I'm picking Buffalo.

However, I will pick the Patriots to fight and claw and stay within the touchdown.

Yeah, this is another tricky one because the reports on Tuesday is Josh Allen is questionable, has a little bit of a knee soreness.

Will that prevent him from playing a game?

I doubt it.

I think he's pretty tough and he plays, but it may prevent him from running as much as he does.

I think it was a couple years ago he had a similar injury and he stayed more in the pocket and it sort of dropped his numbers a little bit.

But I think they Bills still have enough firepower to win this game if Josh Allen just becomes a pocket passer.

But I don't like them, you know, covering the points.

So I, you know, give me New England with the points but Buffalo to win the game.

Got it.

Jets are at the Bears, then Chicago is a three point favorite.

You know, Darren, I told you a couple of weeks ago, I have turned my opinion on the Bears.

I think this is a really good team, a really well coached team.

I think the blip against the Vikings was just that.

I think it was a blip on a very soggy, nasty, ugly day in Chicago.

I think what they, what we saw in weeks one and three are much more who the Bears really are.

Even with Case Keenum who looked very good on Monday night.

I think they are going to handle the jets here and cover the number.

I totally agree with you.

This is one of the teams I was talking about.

I was high on the Bears in the preseason.

I sort of got away from them against Philadelphia last week.

I'm going back with the Bears to cover the points and win the game.

Okay, we got the Jaguars at the Bengals in the Cincinnati is two and a half point favorites.

This is one of the better games on the board.

Also probably one of the more difficult games to pick.

I don't have a lot of conviction behind this pick.

It's kind of a coin toss to me.

But I think Jacksonville quite simply is just a little bit better of a team than Cincinnati.

So I'm going to Pick the Jags to pull the mild upset here and win outright.

Yeah, I think I tend to agree with you.

This is.

I'm going to go away.

Even though I picked Cincinnati to win that division, I think I'm going to go away and go with Jacksonville here because I think maybe Pittsburgh laid a blueprint for the NFL.

You know, Sexy Dex, he's in the Middle East.

If you block him inside and you run off tackle into the outside, he's not going to get there to stop runs.

And I think that opens up a passing game that's going to play very well into the Jacksonville's offensive scheme.

And I think the Jacksonville Jags will win this game outright.

Okay, from Sexy Dexy's new home to his old home, we have the Cardinals who are actually one and a half point favorites on the road against the Giants.

I am betting the Giants here simply on principle because I just don't think that the Arizona Cardinals can be, should be road favorites in an NFL game right now.

This is a bad game on paper.

I don't think it's going to be very pretty.

Nothing would surprise me.

But I'm going to pick the Giants to kind of scratch and claw their way to three and one here.

Yeah, I don't get it.

I don't, don't have any.

If I was going to guess at what this point spread was, I'd say probably, you know, maybe the Giants are three point favorites or something.

But to give up points at home.

Okay, so Jackson Dart's not in there.

They didn't look really that bad.

It looks like they are rallying around, you know, who is playing and you know, Jameis Winston and they're well coached.

You know, they, they have a very solid coach.

I'm agreeing with you, Giants and the points.

Okay, the Rams are minus three at Philadelphia and what has become a, maybe even a more of an important game than we thought it would be at this point because the Eagles look terrible on Monday night and the Rams, you know, one loss away from starting the season one and three.

They say never bet the do.

Okay, so I'm going to kind of go against that and I just kind of think the Rams are due for an impressive win.

So I'm going to, I'm going to say they win the game, but they're going to win it by one or two points.

So Philly's going to cover.

Yeah, gosh, this one's.

If I had to take a mulligan on one and stay away from a game, it might be this game.

Because this just seems like it's just smoldering ugly.

I think, you know, the way these two teams have played, but I think I tend to agree with you.

I think the Rams are going to pull this one out and win this game outright in Philly.

Speaking of smoldering, smoldering ugly, we have the packers three and a half, three and a half point favorites at the Bucks who are starting Jalen Daniels, not Jaden Daniels at quarterback.

Undrafted free agent rookie.

This is a bad game.

I can't, I.

This is going to be tough to watch.

This is like watching the packers and the Bucks when they used to be in the same division back in like the mid-80s, the two really bad teams.

I'm just picking Green Bay to win and Tampa Bay to cover because I really don't know what else to do.

Yeah, this is another one.

Yeah, you're right.

It's.

It's kind of an ugly game.

It's, it's hard to pick but I think, you know, Coach Bulls is a pretty sound mind.

He gets his team fired up and ready.

They really haven't lost by that much in the games that they did lose, you know, which was of them.

But I think they're going to rally this week and beat the Packers.

Okay, got the Titans at the Ravens.

Baltimore is an eleven and a half point favorite.

The expectations weren't very high in Tennessee but somehow they think they're, they're going under them anyway.

So that's kind of a troubling, I would say for the Titans.

Doesn't seem to be much progress and I just haven't seen enough that can tells me that they are capable of pulling off an upset.

I do think they are capable of pulling off staying within 11 and a half points though.

So I'm going to pick the Ravens to win and the Titans to cover.

Well, I asked myself who is going to stop Derek Henry on that Tennessee thing And Derek is going to be very motivated playing his former team, who he was there for, you know, what, half a decade or so and had the great success there.

I think he's going to be motivated.

I think the Ravens are going to be motivated.

Their fan base is going to go crazy and I think they are going to pull it off and win by more than 11 and a half.

Okay, Cowboys are at the Texans and the Texans are two and a half point favorites.

That's right.

An own three team is two and a half point favorites at home.

This is another tough one but you know, at this point I'm just going to go with what I see with my eyeballs and what I see with my eyeballs is a absolutely dreadful offense in Houston right now, and we've got a.

Their defense is great, but so is Dallas's offense.

I think the Cowboys will do enough offensively.

They'll score enough points, and I do not trust the Texans right now.

So I'm picking the Cowboys to cover this number and win the game outright.

Well, I slightly disagree with you here, because what's the best thing for a struggling offense?

The Dallas secondary, because they're all banged up and they're really not stopping anything.

But you're right, Dak Prescott and that offense is unbelievable.

Going up against a very strong Houston defense.

So I'm going to take Houston to win, or, I'm sorry, Dallas to win this game, but Houston to cover on the points.

Well, you can't, because the Texans are.

I'm sorry, they're minus two.

Okay, never mind.

I'll take Houston both ways then.

I'm sorry.

Gotcha.

All right.

All right.

Okay, we've got the Miami Dolphins at the Vikings.

The Vikings are ten and a half point favorites.

I'm just going to go with this until I get it right.

Minnesota is going to win.

Miami's going to cover because Miami will not go 0:17 against the spread.

You know why that Miami is only getting 10 points?

Because I think Vegas thought it was outrageous to give them 20 points is probably what they should be giving them because that's how bad Minnesota is going to stomp the Dolphins.

Minnesota's defense has proven they are good against good offenses.

You know, wait till they get a hold of these guys down there.

They're in trouble down in Miami.

Chiefs are four and a half point favorites on the road in Vegas.

You know, I. I kind of said last week that I thought the Saints were going to roll the Raiders, and I was very wrong.

And now I have to ask myself, am I wrong about the Raiders or was I just a week early?

I'm going to go the other way.

I'm going to say, you know what?

I was wrong about the Raiders and I'm going to pick them to pull the upset here at home against the Chiefs because I think the Raiders offense might actually be legitimately good.

Yeah.

Now, this is one of those teams.

I said in the preseason, the Raiders are going to surprise a few teams in their own division.

I don't think this is going to be one of those weeks.

I mean, they've done it so far.

They've surprised us all, being three and oh, but I think they're going to get grounded here a little bit because, you know, Andy Reid is too good of a coach.

He knows where to find weaknesses.

And, you know, the Kansas City's defense is.

They really know how to rise up to an occasion.

I think this is the week the Chiefs are going to win.

They're going to win by seven and so they'll cover those four and a half points.

Okay, Broncos are at the 49ers and the 49ers are three and a half.

I'm sorry, three point favorites.

I'm pulling another upset here.

I think Denver is going to go into San Francisco and win the 49.

The 49ers are so impressive, so impressive to me.

But those injuries do at some point have to catch up.

This isn't that big of a game for San Francisco.

They're already three and oh, this is a game against an AFC team.

So I don't think it's a big deal if they lose it.

So I'm picking the Broncos to go in and win that game.

Yeah, I like the sentiment.

I like where you're going there.

But this is in San Francisco and those fans get that team really fired up.

They have for decades.

I think they do it again.

San Francisco wins by more than three.

Okay, Chargers.

The miserable Chargers are at the Seahawks and Seattle is seven point favorites, touchdown favorite.

This is another one of those where, gosh, I just don't know how you can pick the Chargers to win a game right now.

I just, you know, from everything we've seen, they were like you said in the pod yesterday, plus or five force five turnovers and still lose by eight points.

I mean, how's even possible?

So I'm picking Seattle to win this game.

I am going to pick the Chargers to cover the number, though.

Yeah, I'm exactly with you there.

I think Seattle wins it, but it won't be more than the seven points.

Okay, we have the Lions.

They're three and a half point favorites on the road on Sunday night against the Panthers.

I think this is the first time Sunday Night Football has been in Carolina in like 12 years or something like that.

And I think they're going to reward their home fans with an upset win over the Lions, who have not been very impressive so far and have some massive, massive problems on defense.

Yeah, they're another one at their secondary is just really, really hurting.

But again, it's another team that has a really good offense and they have a very hot hand in Jameer Gibbs, who I think is going to have another multiple score game to take Detroit to victory and cover that three and a half points.

Okay.

The Falcons are at the Saints on Monday night.

The Saints are three point favorites.

I was wrong on the Saints game last week, but I don't think I'm wrong on the Saints.

I think this is a good team.

I think they're considerably better than Atlanta.

And Darren, this is the Katrina anniversary game.

It's no coincidence they're playing the Falcons just like they did that night 20 years ago.

I think they're going to kind of take that emotion, that fuel and that disappointment from last week's loss and really put it on the Falcons Monday night.

So they're going to win and cover.

Yeah, I totally agree with you.

I think the Saints are a much better team than the Falcons.

You know, even the Buccaneers are one game out of first place and they haven't won a game.

But I think this is the game that really sets the standard that the Saints start pulling away to win this division.

Got it.

There's your picks of the week.

Yeah.

So what are your thoughts for the week?

And we've gave the scores, we gave our thoughts on what's going to happen here.

What's our overall view of what's going on in the NFL?

Well, first of all, I think I'm very interested in the Thursday night game.

I really am because I think that's just a fun, fun setting.

The Browns are at home.

This is a primetime game and a rare opportunity for their fans to be really excited.

Right.

Like, this is a big fun night for them.

I'm sure that's going to be some, some libations flowing throughout Cleveland.

I probably hold not a whole lot of work getting done throughout the week in Northeast Ohio and I'm just kind of excited to see that scene.

And there's a lot of pressure on the Browns here because now it's like, hey, you're two and one.

Can you take, you know, be in first place in the division like a quarter of the way through the season?

So I'm really excited to watch that game on Thursday.

Yeah, it should be fun for it.

Now I'm, I see both of them.

I'm 100 miles away from both markets here and I'm seeing, you know, a lot of the feedback from, you know, DeSean Watson wants us win so bad to try to get the Cleveland fans to embrace them.

You know, how odd is that?

You have a quarterback that's won his last two games and his fan base, he feels doesn't even like him and he's trying to do everything he can to, to win them over.

Of course he's had a lot of sins to make him hate him, but you know, had a lot of, got a lot of money doing it.

So that makes it kind of interesting.

The other thing I found kind of interesting is Mike McCarthy made a comment the other day in his press conference that he was going to let the players, you know, he's having later practices.

That's what he commonly does on these Thursday night games to get people's lives to adjust, to let them sleep in a little bit.

But he told the players they'd be able to sleep in their own beds.

Little did he know there's the NFL rule where you have to be in city when you travel 19 hours prior to kickoff.

So even though it's only about a two hour drive from Pittsburgh to Cleveland, the Steelers still have to go stay overnight there.

So they won't be sleeping in their own beds.

But you know, it was nice of him to try that.

But you know, we've sort of looked at that and McCarthy has never had a game where he's only been two hours away from his opponent to travel.

You know, Dallas is closest opponent is Houston and they're like three and a half hours.

And in Green Bay.

God, there's nothing within four hours of Green Bay.

I don't think that has an NFL team now, Darren.

That makes me lose a little faith in Mike McCarthy because I knew that rule and I am not an NFL coach.

That's been a rule forever and ever and ever.

You have to be in the city the night before the game.

The May.

I think that the main thing about that is they don't want to risk any kind of travel issue, even if it's just a bus ride or whatever the day of a game.

I wonder what they do like when the Giants and the jets play.

You know, what if that might be your exception?

Yeah.

What if some of the, some of the players live in the city, you know, they have to cross the river and stay in Jersey, you know, who, who knows?

Yeah, that's funny.

Yeah, I think that that one's probably okay.

Sticking to the afc.

The other game that really sticks out to me, kind of touched on it in the picks a little bit was, you know, you get the Jags and the Bengals both at 2 and 1 and this is, it's sort of like an early season separation game for me because I feel like whoever comes out of this at 2:2 is pretty disappointed because I think both of These teams have pretty high hopes, like super bowl hopes, to be honest.

And you know, I think it's just this is a really big game.

I think this is a one of the bigger games we've had so far in the first four weeks.

Just kind of like what it could look like down the road.

So I'm kind of interested to see that one.

I am picking Jacksonville in that game, but this could be a big swing game and a big tiebreaker game later.

Yeah, one of my observations here and it just.

I don't know if maybe I haven't really looked up the stats, but doesn't seem like we've had a really high number of starting quarterbacks go down first with significant injuries.

You know, you have Jaden Daniels, you have Jackson dart, you know, Caleb Williams up in Chicago going down.

Who's the other one?

I'm thinking of like Baker Mayfield, Baker going down, going down with that.

You know, it just seems like there's a lot, you know, we're three weeks in the season, there's four of, you know, some of the top quarterbacks are already going down and who knows, you know, there could be more going down this weekend, God forbid.

But that seems like a lot and that really puts an onus on having younger quarterbacks being ready.

So I'm kind of glad that they have that rule that they put in a few years ago where you could dress your third string quarterback, but him not being part of that 53 sort of having that emergency quarterback.

Yeah.

Some of the players to go.

So I think that's.

That may be enacted here once or twice this season.

Right, right.

And then the other thing that I really am looking at is I'm probably the only one besides people in Minnesota that I'll be looking at that Dolphins Vikings game.

And I want to see how far the Vikings can take this.

This Darren, because has there ever been in the history of the NFL that I can think of.

I'm trying to think of a team that you would say, man, that is a good team and they have a horrible quarterback situation.

Kyler and Wentz are terrible.

That is a terrible combo.

They are playing terribly, but it's not mattering because the defense is just carrying them week after week.

And I think this is what, eight weeks in a row now going back to last year and that's JJ McCarthy, Max Brosmer, Carson Wentz and Kyler Murray I think have started games of those eight and they've won them all.

So at some point the rubber is going to meet the road though and they're going to need something out of their quarterback because I'm not sure how far Brian Flores can take this team otherwise.

Well, what's that say about J.J. mcCarthy, who the Vikings traded to the Giants this week?

It's not good.

I can tell you that they're having.

Quarterback problems already and the guy that didn't play, that was supposed to be the hope of their franchise.

They trade him away.

Yes, for sure, for sure.

And then the other thing that really stuck out to me maybe would be that Sunday night game.

You know, when the schedule came out.

You see like Lions Panthers on Sunday night.

You're kind of like eh, that's kind of a dud in a way.

But that could be a super duper fireworks game really because the.

I think the Lions might be destined for shootouts right now unless they figure something out defensively.

And we've seen this year that the, the Panthers can put some points on the board too.

So that has potential to be sort of a sneaky, fun Sunday night game.

It has also the potential of seeing a lot of bright blue colors.

Yes, that's two of the more colorful teams in there.

Yeah, that is an interesting one.

You know, but they're both sort of not where we expected.

I mean I had higher expectations for both those teams and so far they're a little bit disappointing.

I think any of their, even their fan bases will say that.

Yeah.

And I hate in the Lions when you know the three and one if they, if they get the win.

So you know, there's worse things in the world.

You know, if you're three and one and disappointed, that's a lot better than winding up two and two.

Yeah, that's for sure.

So, so what are your hopes?

Do you think Jaden Daniels is going to play this week?

I don't.

I don't think he's going to play this week.

I.

It's good that he traveled and Dan Quinn did say that he's going to practice in some form.

I just kind of have a hard time believing with the London situation and the travel and all that that they're going to put him out on the field on Sunday.

But you don't know because it sounds like he was even practicing a little bit last week, especially considering how well Mario to play against Seattle.

My guess is that they give him the start on Sunday and they probably prep Jaden to come back and start when they come back next week against the Giants.

Now is there some kind.

Is his throwing arm too right?

His elbow?

No, no, no, no.

It's his left okay.

No, I think if it was his throwing elbow, Darren, his season would probably be over.

Okay.

Yeah.

I just wondered because the way that he sort of.

When he.

That play got hurt on where he went awkwardly down on that arm, and then he just tried to, you know, fling the ball again, you know, so nobody would hit him any further.

It just seemed like.

I didn't know if that was his bad wing that he threw it with or.

Or what.

But no, he.

It's.

It's the left elbow, the same as last year.

And, you know, from what we understand, surgery is an option, but there's not a whole lot of difference between doing it now or doing it after the season.

So I think basically what they're going to do is throw a brace on it, have him go play and just hope it doesn't pop out again.

I think it's pretty much that simple.

Yeah, you'd think you could have a compression sleeve or something on there.

They'll have a brace on it.

I'll have a brace on it.

There have been quarterbacks that have played with them before.

Kurt Warner, probably most famously, and I don't know if you remember, he couldn't even hand the ball off with his left hand.

So when it was a handoff to the right, he had to retrain himself to hand his ball off, like, with his right hand, like, backwards.

Now, I wonder what that does.

He.

So he probably can't go under center much if he does.

When he does play and he has that brace on, he's probably gonna have to take almost everything from shotgun or from pistol formation.

I think they're gonna.

I think they're gonna say that he's not limited.

Meaning we're just calling the offense.

We're not going to try to play, you know, if he comes back against the Giants, you know, we're not going to try to play whatever that is.

You know, 13 games of calling plays so that your quarterback doesn't get hurt Again, I don't think you can do that.

I think you just have to.

Either.

Either he can play or he can't.

I think that's how.

I think that's how this has to go.

And when he's ready to go, you just call your offense like you normally would.

You know, maybe, you know, they really weren't calling any designed runs already this year, very many.

So maybe you just make sure you don't do that.

But really, both times he's hurt his arm, it's just from him trying to brace himself, getting out of the pocket.

So it's, it's not even getting hit.

It's just bad luck.

So I think you just got to play it either way.

You can't try to call an NFL game that I'm going to only call plays where my quarterback won't get hurt.

Right.

Yeah, that's true.

That's true.

Well, do you have anything else to add just before we wrap this show up?

That's it, Darren.

But it's a lot more fun to do this coming off a win than it is coming off a loss.

That's you that right now.

I 100 agree.

So hopefully we both are happy next week when we have our our two episodes, folks.

If you've missed it, you know, on YouTube and on the podcast yesterday, we covered the history of week three and some of the historic moments that happened from Week 3 in the NFL and of as we do every Thursday and we'll do next Thursday.

We'll make the predictions here and you can check out how we did next Thursday.

And we have plenty of other great programming going on in between there.

And you know, Ed has some a lot of fun with the social media.

Ned, would you like to share your social media so people can.

Yeah, you can follow me on X.

And that's if you go.

If you look up Washington football memories, we do a lot of obviously commanders talk, Redskins history, but there's a lot of NFL history that I share on there as well.

All right, well, we appreciate you coming on here again and we will talk to you again next week.

Thanks, Darren.

That's all the football history we have today, folks.

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