Most of the NFL’s Super Bowl Champions are winners that you could see coming. Even if they were not the favorites, even if you needed to squint to see a scenario in which they’d emerged victorious, you are seldom shocked by who’s left standing at the end of it all.
Yet, there are Super Bowl champions through NFL history who truly, utterly caught us off guard. And we might be well on our way to seeing another one. Both the Seattle Seahawks (60-to-1) and New England Patriots (80-to-1) entered the 2025 NFL season with less than a 2 percent chance of winning it all. Fast forward to know, and they are both in the conference championships, a mere one victory away from a shot at eyebrow-raising history.
What’s more, some are even expecting one of them to do it. Just go look at sites where you can bet on the Super Bowl. Both of them are odds-on favorites to reach the big game. There is a chance, if not a strong likelihood, that Super Bowl LX will be guaranteed to deliver us one of the most unlikely champions of all time.
Naturally, this raises the question: Who are the teams that fall into this bucket? Using preseason Super Bowl odds as our guide, here is the definitive list of the top five most improbable champions in league history.
1999 St. Louis Rams
Preseason Odds: +15000 (150-to-1)
Fueled by the emergence of Kurt Warner under center, the 1999 St. Louis Rams went from a complete afterthought to champions. They finished the regular season with the league’s best defense to go along with a top-four offense en route to winning 13 games—a far cry from the five to six victories they were projected to scoop up.
St. Louis’ journey to hoisting the trophy featured three relatively close playoff wins over the Minnesota Vikings (divisional round), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (conference champions) and then the Tennessee Titans in the Super Bowl itself.
Nearly three decades later, the Rams, who now call St. Louis home, are the only team to win the Super Bowl after coming in with odds longer than 100-to-1.
2001 New England Patriots
Preseason Odds: +6000 (60-to-1)
This is the Super Bowl that spawned a dynasty for the New England Patriots. After entering the season expected to win between six and seven games, they rattled off 11 victories on the back of a top-six offense and defense.
More importantly, this was the year Tom Brady began his March toward the greatest-quarterback-of-all-time status, a trajectory even more unlikely than that of the team. Brady was selected 199th overall in the 2000 draft. To say he was a footnote would be understatement. But an injury to Drew Bledsoe early in the season paved the way for him to start. The Patriots went on to beat the Oakland Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers in the playoffs, before upending the reigning champion (and aforementioned) Rams in the Super Bowl.
New England never looked back from there. Brady turned into an all-time great, if not the all-time great, and the Patriots went on to win six total Super Bowls during his tenure.
1981 San Fransisco 49ers
Preseason Odds: +5000 (50-to-1)
This was the first Super Bowl victory for the San Francisco 49ers. It was also easily their most unlikely.
After nearly a decade of winning eight or fewer games during the regular season, the Niners collected 13 victories during the 1981 regular season. Their second-ranked defense was the engine that powered their machine, but they were also piloted by future Hall of Famer Joe Montana under center. He ended up posting the NFL’s highest completion rate that season, giving the Niners offense an ability to flip a switch it never before could.
San Francisco’s path to the Super Bowl included wins over the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys, two of the NFC’s most vaunted squads. Their championship capper came against the Cincinnati Bengals, whose third-ranked offense proved to be no match for the Niners’ exhaustive defense.
2017 Philadelphia Eagles
Preseason Odds: +4000 (40-to-1)
To be honest, the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles’ Super Bowl romp was even more unlikely than the odds imply. Most had them contending for nine wings entering the regular season. An injury to QB1 Carson Wentz, however, was supposed to scuttle any postseason hopes they had.
Yet, Nick Foles took over the starting gig, and Philly just kept winning. The Eagles wound up finishing inside the top four of both offense and defense, and they put together one of the more impressive Super Bowl runs in recent vintage.
Philly’s closest call technically came during the divisional round, in a 15-10 victory over the Atlanta Falcons. They then pummeled the Vikings in the NFC championship, winning 38-7. The Eagles also took down the dynastic Patriots in the Super Bowl, winning 41-33.
1982 Washington Redskins
Preseason Odds: +3500 (35-to-1)
If you didn’t see Washington’s league-best offense coming in 1982, you were not alone. Pretty much no one did. It was not until Joe Thiesmann took over quarterback responsibilities that the team really emerged as a viable threat.
For its part, Washington bagged its first-ever Super Bowl win the hard way, winning four games during the playoff bracket. On top of that, they didn’t really face any nail-biters. All four of their playoff wins came by double digits, including their 27-17 victory against the Miami Dolphins in the Super Bowl.