As the 2024/25 NBA season gets underway, it’s not exactly a secret that the Boston Celtics are heavily favored to regain the NBA Championship. At odds of +300 or thereabouts preseason, it’s not that they are historically short-priced to win it all, but those odds leave little doubt that they are the team to beat.
Looking across the NBA odds, you’ll see a clump of challengers, including the Knicks, Thunder, Bucks, Timberwolves, Sixers, Nuggets, and Mavs. Those teams’ NBA Championship odds all range from about +800 to +1000. It’s tight, and you can make arguments for and against each team.
When you consider that octet, there’s a very, very high probability that the 2024/25 NBA Finals winner comes from the group. Anyone else would be considered a major shock. Yet, shocks do happen, from time to time.
The NBA is a good sport for backing favorites. Since 1985, thirty of the 38 championship-winning teams have had odds of below 10/1 (+1000). NFL has seen plenty of Super Bowl champions with huge preseason odds, including the Philadelphia Eagles, who were available at +6000 before their unlikely Super Bowl LII win.
For NBA, the team with the biggest preseason odds to win a championship in recent history is the Golden State Warriors. Available at +2800 at the beginning of the 2014/15 season, the Warriors won it all and kicked off a dominant dynasty.
While we don’t think there are Warriors-in-waiting caliber teams knocking about the dark horse territory of the betting markets this time around, there are some teams that could do well and defy the odds. Now, we aren’t saying these teams are going to be NBA Champions, but the odds are interesting, and they could compete across the season, or at least surprise the doubters. And, we shouldn’t forget that there are dozens of other markets, including beating the over/under win totals, where they can be backed.
Phoenix Suns
One thing that should interest teams about the Suns is the variation in their NBA Championship odds among sportsbooks. We have seen them priced at a respectable +1400 with some, but we have also seen them as big as +3300 with others. It’s a huge gap, and one that warrants closer attention.
Bleacher Report’s preseason power rankings put the Suns as no.7 in the NBA, claiming that they “should be taken seriously as a championship threat.”. We aren’t fully sure, and the Western Conference is going to be tough to get out of this season, but if you find them at higher odds, they may be worth a shot to nothing.
Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic won 47 games last season, have one of the most exciting young teams in the NBA, and have a coach whose stock is on the rise, so what’s not to like? The odds of +6500 listed on DraftKings suggest that nobody truly believes they will be a shock NBA Finals winner, but they can go further than many expect.
The arrival of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope really should make a difference for this young team, which boasts two of the best up-and-coming players in Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero. If you can get decent odds on a Top 4 finish in the Eastern Conference, they may be worth taking.
Memphis Grizzlies
We’ll finish with the Grizzlies because their stats simply won’t fit into statistical models, and that will impact their odds. Memphis won 56 games three seasons ago, 51 the season before last, and then somehow ended up on 27 wins last season. They are much, much better than that. Of course, we know the reason they struggled in 2023/24 – a horrific run of injuries and disciplinary issues for Ja Morant.
You could count on one hand, maybe two, the number of times they were able to get their best players on the court. It would take a lot of guts to back them to win the NBA Championship at +4000, but if healthy, the Grizzlies can get back where they belong in the Playoff mix.
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