When the Philadelphia Eagles walked off the field of Caesars Superdome last February, very few people would have said that their Super Bowl LIX victory was undeserved. It wasn’t just the championship game against the Chiefs, either, as the Eagles were a team that grew into the season, constantly getting better throughout the regular season and the Playoffs.
The Eagles, of course, did not start the season as favorites, but they weren’t exactly long shots either. Their preseason odds sat at around +1200, a fair distance behind teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and San Francisco 49ers, and around the same price as the Detroit Lions.
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2025 Playoffs Odds Are Intriguing
The 1990s Had One Huge Outlier
If we go back a little further and look at the 1990s, there are certainly specific years that stand out. Most famously, there was the case of the St Louis Rams, a team with odds of +15000 before the start of the 1999 season.
That is certainly an outlier, and it skews the average across the decade, giving the average Super Bowl winner odds of +2105. The 1990s were actually quite kind to short-priced favorites, including a run from 1993 to 1995 when the Cowboys (twice) and 49ers won at odds of lower than +350.
So, if you know this information, what can you do with it? The short answer is nothing. There is no set rule to say the Super Bowl winner should have specific odds, or even fall into a specific odds bracket.
However, it should give anyone who is having a punt a kind of freedom to look beyond the odds. By all means, go for it if you fancy the Bills or Ravens to win this year, but your Super Bowl picks should not be predicated on the price of the team. NFL history teaches us time and time again that the odds-compilers’ guesswork is rarely on point.