When you look at things statistically, there is some wisdom in the statement that the preseason favorite rarely wins the Super Bowl. Over the last 25 years, you are looking at a win percentage of around 20%. Of course, with hindsight, you can sometimes look back after a Super Bowl and say, “This team should have been the favorite,” which happened a few times with the New England Patriots.
Still, the truth is that the team at the top of the betting markets in August and early September usually goes on to win the big one about one out of every five times.
In saying that, it is interesting to note that this was a good year for sportsbooks to get things right in predicting the teams that would get to the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs. Of course, Super Bowl LIX is not done and dusted yet, and the Super Bowl odds are still live for this season, but we are interested in the statistics here and the way the sportsbooks set out the top contenders – mostly – panned out correctly.
Most of the Leading Teams Made the Playoffs
To explain, the bookmakers led with the Chiefs (no surprises there), Bills, Ravens, Eagles, Lions, and 49ers. There is always some disagreement between rival sportsbooks, but, by and large, that is the six teams who were favorites in the preseason. Not only that, but there was a fair margin of distance between those six and the rest of the chasing pack, which would cover teams like the Rams, Bengals, Packers, and Texans.
Nonetheless, with the ‘Leading 6’, you can say it wasn’t a bad effort, given that five of those six made the Playoffs and the Divisional Round. The team that ruined the perfect score was the 49ers, a team that had a stinking season. To make it worse for the sportsbooks, many had the Niners as co-favorites with the Chiefs. The 49ers should be considered one of the biggest flops in modern football, given the level of expectation for the team going into the season.
The Commanders Became the Surprise Package
Of course, if a team that is expected to do well doesn’t, there is always room for a surprise package, a team that has vast odds and exceeds expectations. That team was the Washington Commanders in the 2024 season. Trading at +8000 for the Super Bowl with many sportsbooks and predicted to struggle to get a record of better than .500 with many experts, the Commanders were clearly the season’s breakout team.
Led by mercurial rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the Commanders have a bright future, and we should note that they are much, much shorter in the odds for Super Bowl LX (yes, they are already live).
Finally, we should mention the Minnesota Vikings. It’s somewhat challenging to know where to rank them in this exercise because there were some wild disparities in the odds given to them by sportsbooks. Some had them as complete outsiders, with odds of around +8000, whereas others had them much lower. In the end, the Vikings only made it to the Wild Card Round, but few experts had them down for that brilliant 14-3 season to get there. It was a historically good run for Minnesota.
Ultimately, it was a good year for the favorites overall, and it’s not uncommon to see a surprise team like the Commanders in the mix. Similar names lead the betting markets for Super Bowl LX, but it’s a long way to September, and plenty of teams will do business with trades and free agents, not to mention the Draft, which will move the odds.